I'm a little dissapointed with two of my college bets from Saturday, but I'll go over that on Monday during my weekend summation and pick for MNF.
Here at Donkeybets, we try to bet against America as often as possible. Favorites are absolutely killing it this year in the NFL and the books are getting taken. Even the casual gambler has been making money. I can't play that streak. This is the week Vegas, and Captain Donk, take down the Donkeys. Here are my picks:
Minn (-11.5) @ STL - C'mon Vegas! You make this game 14 points I still take Minny, so why wouldn't you. 96% of America is laying the points. You have to roll with the crowd. St. Louis has scored 24 points in 4 games. 24 points? I watched them score 17 against Green Bay. Ouch. Gotta lay the points.
Oct 11 01:00 PM EST - Football NFL - 401 Minnesota Vikings -11½ -110 for Game
55.00 units
50.00 units
Tampa Bay (+15 1/2) @ Philly - The Eagles are definitely due for a stink bomb. Tampa actually showed signs of life last week with rookie Josh Johnson. By the way, how dumb do you think Josh Freeman is? Can I get his Wonderlic results? For him to be drafted in the first round as the future of the franchise at QB, and then your coach goes with some no name 5th rounder when he says they are benching Leftwich, I'm thinking he has to be pretty dumb. However, that opens the door for "Number 1 Josh" to swoop in, take a job, and earn a nice paycheck. Don't mess with a brotha when there's money involved. 75% of America is on this three score spread? +750 to win the game is sooooo enticing.
Oct 11 01:00 PM EST - Football NFL - 407 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15½ -110 for Game
55.00 units
50.00 units
Cincy (+8 1/2) @ Baltimore - No respect for the Bengals yet. The defense is legit. The O-Line is making Cedric Benson look like (searching for a comparison for a historically underachieving back who finally makes due...) 2003 Ricky Williams. Palmer looks like his knee never got shattered and I think he is furious on the inside that Kimo Van Oehlhoffen crawled right into his knee on the first play of their playoff game with the Steelers back in '05 and now there's the Brady Rule instead of the Palmer rule. Ravens pull it out, but I just think this line is too high.
Oct 11 01:00 PM EST - Football NFL - 413 Cincinnati Bengals +8½ -110 for Game
55.00 units
50.00 units
Atlanta @ San Francisco (-3) - I still haven't met anyone who is as high on the 49ers as I am this year. I see them beating up the Atlanta front 7 and moving the ball with Coffee. The ATL offense hasn't shown me they can move the ball on the ground. Long road trip. I don't see coming off a bye as an advantage when you are playing a team catching its stride. Here's hoping ATL keeps it within 8 so El Donk hits his teaser.
Oct 11 04:05 PM EST - Football NFL - 418 San Francisco 49ers -3 -115 for Game
55.00 units
47.83 units
New England @ Denver (+4) - December weather tomorrow in Denver. Might as well consider it a December game where the team that can run the ball and play solid defense wins. Right now, I think that's Denver. Draw as many McDaniels-Bellichek parallels as you want, the understudy always wants to show his old boss he can do it on his own. If you don't think this game was circled on McDaniels schedule in June, you don't know shit about the NFL.
Oct 11 04:15 PM EST - Football NFL - 420 Denver Broncos +4 Ev for Game
55.00 units
55.00 units
Indy @ Tennessee (+4 1/2) - Okay, this might be the stretch play of the week. I wish the line was 6, where it should be, but oh well. Indy still can't stop the run. Watching that Miami game two weeks ago should tell you all you need to know. Is Peyton still at the helm of the best passing attack in the league? Yes. Is the Tennessee defense now the worst at defending the pass? Yes. Are 91% of all spread bets for this game on Indy to cover, on the road, at night? Ahhhhh, yes.
Oct 11 08:20 PM EST - Football NFL - 426 Tennessee Titans +4½ -105 for Game
55.00 units
52.38 units
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This is one of those few occasions where I hope Captain Donk didn't actually bet all the money (above) without consulting El Donk. I don't disagree with anything too much except for the Broncos call. Two days ago I was buying the Broncos too but after a Saturday night talking about football instead of talking to girls I gotta pull for the Pats here. I don't like the juice at -120, but the Pats seem to be hitting their stride. You can say what you want about Nolan but with Welker back this offense has a different vibe to it.
ReplyDeleteThe Broncos beat the Bengals on a fluke play, with Stokley pulling a Madden move, the Raiders, the Browns, and a struggling Dallas squad. Say what you want but I'm not that impressed with this "great defense" when you look at it like that. The X factor is McDaniels of course, but I don't have that much faith -- here's to hoping the Pats win by 2 so Captain Donk can get paid.
ps, Broncos might be undefeated, but with the Pats, @SD, Ravens, and Pitt up next, this team could easily be 4-4 soon. Their schedule looks like 9-7 to me.
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