The NBA regular season is a cake walk. Half of the teams in the league make the playoffs, and a quarter of the teams are awful and really have no shot at making the playoffs. Just on that premise alone, you're looking at about 20%-25% of the league that the regular season should matter to because they are really "fighting" for a playoff spot. I know this is totally off the wall, and I'm going to try and tiptoe around an issue that is the ginormous fucking elephant in the room, but if this was a performance incentive league, basketball would be king. The big time players have award incentives in their contracts and the small time players have roster bonuses, but I'm talking about wins, points, assists, taking charges, O and D rebounds, etc... You would obviously have to do something with making assists and charges more than points because there are enough ball hogs. Basketball is slowly taking over as the country's most marketable sport. Football is king, baseball is declining, hockey is making an okay attempt and revitalizing it's fan base, but basketball has "it." It attracts the youth of the country. There are 20 guys in the league that are "celebrities." There are maybe 3-5 in baseball. Possibly 2 in hockey that are known by name and not by face. Basketball is marketable. And yet, the regular season is a walk-through. I will expand on this later.
All that being said, this will be my only NBA wager of the year if it loses. If I lose, I'm $20 in the hole on betting the NBA for the year and I won't get mad at the elephant.
Basketball NBA - 714 Oklahoma City Thunder -6½ -110 for Game Basketball NBA - 715 New Orleans Hornets +9½ -110 for Game Basketball NBA - 723 Phoenix Suns -3½ -110 for Game Basketball NBA - 702 Orlando Magic -600 for Game
20 units to win 143.33 units
The Thunder is the gazelle in the jungle that hasn't been approached by the "elephant" and told about the regular season yet. Young, energetic, and one of the 7 teams that actually has a meaningful regular season. Sacramento does not. You can put their ping pong ball in the bingo sphere now. I will lay the points at home.
San Antonio is good. Actually, they are great. But when have you seen them push hard in the regular season before March? New Orleans is no push over and they won't lose on opening night by 10 points.
The Clippers have to play back to back nights to open the season. Ouch. At least it will be in the same arena, unlike the Celts. Still, I was pumped up to see Blake Griffin last night and then get the news he's out for the first month. Sounds like Shaun Livingston all over again. Phoenix has to be fresh.
Orlando is not losing to Philly on opening night. They'll have a nice little ceremony before the game and then really lay it to the 76ers. Orlando is going off at 12-1 to win the championship this year. I'm just saying, if you are looking for value, I would lay 100 units on them and San Antonio at 4.5-1.
One and done for me and the NBA.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
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