NCAAF Betting Strategies

Ohhh, how we love Autumn Saturdays. The leaves changing, a little cold beer, maybe a lot of cold beer, and college football. There is some great value out there tomorrow. Whenever a game can hit 2 of the following 4 criteria in college football, you usually go with that team. When a team can hit all 4 you should immediately take a step back, ask for a fresh set of eyes, and then load up. These are the basic 4 criteria that I like to follow for college football:

1.) Bet on the home team: This isn't the NFL. Home field advantage can easily move a line 6 points. I've been in crowds of 70,000+ screaming fans when the road team has 3rd and 6 and haven't been able to hear myself think. You think any QB is going on 2 in that situation? I played at Navy on September 11th a few years back. There were maybe 30,000 people and we just about abandoned audibles. I know the midshipmen aren't crazy about football. I've seen their fans cheer just as hard at the Head of the Charles pulling for the crew team, but it was loud. From the sideline, where I spent the majority of my collegiate career, you couldn't hear anything. Now I can't relate that to say, when Florida goes to LSU, but I'm guessing it's about 4 times as loud (I was a finance major).

2.) Night game? Home team or nothing: Crazy drunk college kids. I shouldn't have to explain myself further. Go ask Pete Carroll why USC always loses to an inferior Pac-10 team on the road every year. Home field advantage is multiplied in games that start after 8pm.

3.) Take the Home Dog: "We must protect this house" has certainly stayed with us a lot longer than this horrible catch phrase. If you think that Washington State doesn't know that they are 21 point underdogs at home this week, you're dead wrong. By the way, don't take WSU this week. I'm just saying.

4.) Of course, bet against America: Me and El Donk always try to abide by this strategy. Over the years, it seems to hold true in college football more so than any other sport. Vegas is older than all of us. Something like 104 years. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I'm pretty confident that Vegas has made money in the sports gambling business for, let's say 104 years. There's a reason they keep doing it. It's profitable. Throw in the 10% vig, and you need to win 54% of all your bets to break even. That's if you bet the same amount of money for every game. Underdogs have covered 52% of games this year, and guess who loves to play the favorites. That's right, the general public. I know, it's tough to take the underdog. They aren't a better team, but with 13 points they just might be.

So without further ado, here are my top 4 college picks in no particular order for tomorrow:

Michigan @ IOWA (-8) - Tricky game. I don't think Iowa is that good and I KNOW Michigan isn't that good. This game hits 3 out of 4 betting criteria. Michigan is also starting a 19 year old at QB. Very touching how Forcier took the blame for last weeks loss. I'm thinking he should've saved that speech for after he goes into Kinnick Stadium in front of 70,000 fans that aren't wearing mason blue. I'll lay the points.

Oct 10 08:00 PM EST - Football NCAA - 386 Iowa Hawkeyes -8 -110 for Game
55.00 units 50.00 units

Wisconsin (+16) @ Ohio State - Too many points. Wisconsin is definitely bringing their A-game as they play for first place in the big ten. I've been crushing Ohio State all year, but this is finally the game where I have to go against them. Ohio State wins 31-24.

Oct 10 03:30 PM EST - Football NCAA - 355 Wisconsin Badgers +16 -110 for Game
55.00 units 50.00 units

New Mexico @ WYOMING (-10) - I lived in Colorado this past winter doing the whole ski bum thing. Whenever I went down to Boulder/Denver and went for a run after a solid night, I could always feel my body not respond the way it normally does. When I tried to run up at the base of Vail at 8,000 feet, my lungs were on fire and it took me weeks to be able to do a three mile loop. I'm in pretty decent shape. Wyoming's stadium is at 7,000 feet and New Mexico hasn't won a game this year. I've gotta lay the points.

Oct 10 02:00 PM EST - Football NCAA - 336 Wyoming Cowboys -10 -110 for Game
55.00 units 50.00 units

William and Mary (-25 1/2) @ Northeastern - I don't know where they get the 25 1/2 from. I guess you can see it being 35-10. WandM is the real deal. Last weeks game at Villanova was the first FCS (1-AA) regular season game ever broadcasted on network television. Shout out to Versus! We don't have the time to go through every team, but we are pretty sure NU is the only team in the country that is 0-5 ATS and also winless. You have to ride that streak out until it ends. Most books only let you win $100 on FCS games, but you know what I have to say to that? You should have more than one account.

Football College 1AA - 1469 William & Mary Tribe -25½ -120 for
120.00 units To Win Amount: 100.00 units

A side shout out to everyone going to UNH this weekend for homecoming. Villanova @UNH is definitely the best off the board game this weekend and the only reason I can't take 'Nova because of the homecoming crowd and both teams are undefeated. I saw the Wildcats play 2 weeks ago and for my money, they are the best team in FCS. I'm just going to let that game slide this week.

Speaking of college life and frat parties, it's time for our weekly Kappa Kappa Gamma Tease of the week!

If you got LSU when the line opened at 11 1/2, I would say you are pretty golden. Tebow or not, for Florida to come into Death Valley for a night game and come out of there with a 3 score win is pretty far fetched. It's already down to 7 1/2 and still no definitive word whether or not Tebow plays. More than 65% of America is on LSU too. The Donks are going to stand back from this one even though it covers 3 of the 4 betting criteria, just not the most important one.

Here are your two teams. Take the Midshipmen down to -5 playing at Rice this week as well as laying -6 1/2 for Wake to beat Maryland by a touchdown at home. You're welcome.

Oct 10 06:30 PM EST - Football NCAA - 318 Wake Forest Demon Deacons -6½ for Game Oct 10 03:30 PM EST - Football NCAA - 377 Navy Midshipmen -5 for Game Football 6 pt Teaser 110.00 100.00


- Captain Donk